Last week I wrote,
The good news is that class conflicts, whether economic or prestige-social in orientation, aren’t set in stone. I’m always mystified by Judis-Teixeira-esque studies that predict that the Democratic party is demographically destined to victory or failure. In the short run, clearly, political parties work with the demographic possibilities at hand. Over the medium run, the class, race, and ethnic bases of political alliances can shift around.
Kieran Healy has some more (and better fleshed out) thoughts about demography-as-destiny arguments.
I’ve been trying to think through the political implications of what I’ve been circling around here. On one hand, as I was discussing with a friend last night, I think it highly likely that some demographic realignment of the major political parties seems highly possible in the medium run. On the other hand, when you extrapolate from present demographics, you overlook the ways in which they are dymanic and ever-changing. A lot can change, even in a decade. Just look at the UK, where a tidal shift in the political climate exceeded any presumable demographic cause.
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