.08 Acres has an interesting post wondering if yesterday’s announcement from Christy Mihos that he’s running for governor as an independent means the end of the Massachusetts GOP.
I am not saying that the Democrats are now guaranteed victory in November. It is possible that Christy Mihos might win, and it’s still not impossible (though I think it’s unlikely) that Kerry Healey could win. Here’s what I want to stress. The Republicans have been winning the governorship with a coalition of registered Republicans, anti-tax independents and disaffected Democrats. While Healey is likely to get the vote of the Republicans, there aren’t that many of them, when compared with the size of the other two groups combined. Those independents and Democrats are just as likely to vote for Healey as Mihos (assuming he runs a credible campaign, which is not a given either). The point I’m trying to make is that Mihos breaks up the Republican’s coalition.
I’d second his thoughts. It’s also occured to me how important in retrospect the Healey vs. Rappaport race for Lt. Governor in 2002 was. Not so much because it mapped out left-right divisions in the Republican Party that continue today (Mihos and Healey are both making centrist gestures), but because Rappaport’s defeat undoubtedly sticks fresh in Mihos’ mind as a distinct possibility for him if he were to run in with the Republican primary. If Mihos is the tragic climax, Rappaport was the drama’s peripeteia.
sco also makes the point that even if Mihos wins, he’ll be hobbled without a natural constituency. That matters, of course, but I’m not sure Romney’s power came from his constituency. At least on higher-profile issues, he seemed to gain power only to the extent he could mobilize media coverage and "silent majority" legitimation. No matter who wins in 2006, it’s quite possible that we’ll see more and more of a "shallow," media-centric gubernatorial power.
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