David Eisenthal questions Wayne Woodlief’s math ability (subs. req.) and offers his own odds for the Governor’s race:
Deval Patrick 45% probability (60% primary)
Tom Reilly 22% (40% primary)
Kerry Healey 2% (100% primary)
Christy Mihos 30%
(Percentages don’t add up to 100 due to rounding.)
David’s assessment sounds mostly reasonable to me, at least given the race right now. Patrick definitely strikes me as having the best odds, for both the primary and the general election, though I think 45 percent odds are a smidge high. I agree with him that Mihos looks like a strong candidate from center-right as of now. But Healey, for all her faults, certainly deserves more than 2 percent.
And we should consider the likelihood that disenchanted Reilly supporters will try to draft a centrist candidate before summer. Martha Coakley, perhaps? Never mind that Patrick is actually a pretty standard liberal-centrist on policy issues and in persona: there remains a disconnect with the actual policy stances of the Deval Patrick campaign and the Deaniac style of his core supporters (JumboDem goes as far to call it irrational exuberance). Over time, if Patrick remains the front runner and primary winner, these may come into a better marriage; until then, don’t discount the possibility of a last-minute candidate, however difficult getting the 15% delegate requirement for nomination would be.
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