Since the details of party machinations and caucusing can get a little overwhelming and step back with some off-the-cuff analysis, for what it’s worth, of what happened this last weekend in state politics. Here are the winners and losers.
Winner: Deval Patrick
His supporters should be commended. Undoubtedly the news cycle worked in their favor, but Patrick’s super strong showing at caucus couldn’t have happened without the organizing efforts and coordination of the campaign. Ultimately, it’s the nomination that counts of course, not the convention, but Patrick’s as well situtated as he could possibly have hoped after this weekend. Don’t be surprised if the news media start taking him more seriously and the vicious cycle of coverage turns virtuous.
Loser: Tom Reilly
Not merely because it was the bad end to a bad two weeks, or because he didn’t meet expecations. The weekend’s defeat gave him another occasion to fumble his political response, with attacks on the party. The progressive bloggers are shouting themselves hoarse and unleashing anger on anyone who might have been a Reilly supporter, when they may do just as well to keep quiet and let Reilly tie the rope to hang himself. At least that seems to be Deval Patrick’s strategy to date, and it’s working.
Winner: Christy Mihos
Just a hunch, but even if Patrick tacks center as the summer and the primary approaches, Mihos gets a little more political-spectrum breathing room at a crucial stage in formulating an independent or moderate-Republican run. I’m not sure of his ultimate chances, but whatever they are strike me as a lot better now with Reilly severely weakened.
Loser: Kerry Healey
The best weapon in her arsenal is her disconnectiuon from the Democratic machine (unlike Reilly) and the Turnpike (like Mihos). If Patrick gets the nomination, half of Romney’s playbook has been taken away from her.
Winner: Progressives
Not so much because Deval Patrick is going to deliver them everything they want, but because they flexed their political muscle and will undoubtedly have greater control over the direction of the political party as a result. And this weekend is a culmination, a reflection that a counter-machine has finally arrived on the state level to express Mugwump dissatisfaction, rally Progressive’s efforts and coordinate their votes as a bloc.
Loser: the Machine
I’ve never been fond of the state political machine, but now that not even Marty Meehan can rally support for a candidate at a political caucus, I’m wondering if some of its more positive functions (keeping a legitimation pipeline to the constitutency, for instance) may now be emperiled. I agree with Jay Fitzgerald’s analysis, except that Progressive-Hack isn’t much of an alliance right now. You have seething anger and adrenaline rushes on one side, and quiet resignation and anxiety on the other. I think, that is. I don’t actually know any hacks, but I have to suspect they’d agree with Fitzgerald and aren’t feeling super enthusiastic about this weekend’s results.
Winner: Blue Mass Group
Their coverage made them the go-to site this weekend. They’re clearly stepping into the breach left open by the local dailies who have decided that thorough coverage of state politics is unprofitable. It helps, of course, that blogs are able to aggregate many people’s experience quickly and effortlessly.
Loser: Democratic Unity
Plenty of time for a contentious primary before rallying behind a nominee. But I somehow don’t remember even the four-way 2002 primary race being this heated and in fact venomous. Lots of bad-faith slurs being slung around on all sides.
Winner: Universal Health Care
Combined with the shift toward the Progressives in the House, Patrick’s stronger showing increases the chances of some universal health care plan, if one doesn’t get passed before 2007.
Loser: Anti-MCAS forces
I don’t know why I just now noticed, but Patrick is on record in support of the MCAS testing requirement for high school graduation. That means that no major gubernatorial candidate will be calling for its removal, nor is one likely to emerge anytime soon. Is it just me with the anti-MCAS circles I run in or is this not big news? At the very least it’s important evidence that despite the Progressives’ organizational muscle, the policy direction under Patrick might not be in fact that much more to the left than the consensus range in MA politics.
It’s easy to overstate the importance of the nominating convention caucus, but I do feel the ground did shift under the political landscape, at least slightly.
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