So my predictions didn’t pan out so badly, though it failed to win me my Oscar pool, as I ended up in a three-way tie at 18 out of 24 correct. Which just goes to show that this endless speculation and handicapping in the media has made everyone (even me) an expert in Academythink. As a public service for future armchair oddsmakers, here’s how the published predictions panned out. The Globe actually bothered to predict every category, not just the top six, and Ty Burr did just about as well as Entertainment Weekly; Wesley Morris did better, even. Slate’s David Edelstein did pretty well for the categories he did venture to call. The New York Times went left-field in its guesses, and for the most part was horribly wrong. The Economist was further off, claiming that the awards are anyone’s guess, then going on to predict the Sideways actors as Supersize Me as winners. Peter Keough didn’t miss more of the top 6 than I did, but who knows how he would have fared on the other categories. The Vegas odds were serviceably accurate but not 100 percent right, even on the top 6. In any case, the convergence of conventional wisdom suggested that like with fashion, the punditry is killing the pleasures of the Awards. Maybe we should be guessing whether Sideways will win over Million Dollar Baby.
Or maybe there was something especially predictable this year. There certainly was little excitement for the races themselves. Fortunately, despite the grumblings you read this morning, the telecast that was the best in years: the scripting wasn’t too ham-handed (except for the riff on Catherine Zeta-Jones), those weird format changes actually saved time (though the technical winners really should have their moment on stage) and Chris Rock was hilarious. Especially the man-on-the-street interviews in the Magic Johnson Theatre. I don’t know what the Academy is supposed to do with that critique. I for one like the fact they seek out product that’s not especially the boxoffice draw — it keeps the Academy from becoming the Grammys. But it’s nonetheless worth cutting through the pomposity and recognizing the fandom that commercial cinema inspires. Unwittingly, Rock’s stunt showed the inspirational quality of movies more than the stilted montage clips the Academy produces each year.
I do miss the sense of spontaneity you used to see. The best unscripted moment was Oprah raising her fist in the air during Jamie Foxx’s speech, but that was about the only one. In general, speeches were short and gracious, outfits were boring, and everything went off without a hitch. As David Edelstein put it, "Fascists do make the trains run on time." It’s no surprise that spontaneity or any relish of liveness had to go.
Sidebar: Could they really think of no one better for the Thalberg award than Sidney Lumet? Could one even identify a Sidney Lumet film from its style?
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