In a new experiment in public self-humiliation, I decided to post my Oscar predictions this year, see below the fold. Actually a lot of it came from what I’ve read (thanks Entertainment Weekly!), with just a few contrarian picks thrown in to make it interesting. But since this year I thought I’d track how well the predicters in the press do, I should put my own out there.
In run-up for the event you should check out Slate’s slideshow article on Oscar fashions. The must-read article of the day.
And the Cinetrix points to two of the nominated shorts you can watch online: animated Canadian short Ryan and Spanish live-action 8-minute short 7.35 in the Morning. I particularly liked the latter, a bit of gallows humor that nonetheless is bouyant and humanizing.
ADDENDUM: I should also recommend Manohla Dargis’s short analysis. I like her point about the Thalberg award. I would take issue with her characterization of the history as an unchanging battle between art and commerce - what’s considered “art” in feature filmmaking has changed considerably over the last century, at least that’s what I’m banking my dissertation’s argument on. Anyway, if this year “art is taking a serious beating”, so is industry: there’s no Titanic, no genuinely popular film, vying for nominations. Ray’s the closest, and even it has been received as a niche market film. The Aviator tried to be a prestige film that also drew the crowds, but it failed miserably.
[UPDATE (3:35PM): Gonna change a couple of my votes, especially now that Ty Burr points out that Scorcese’s editor Thelma Schoonmaker has never won an award before. Also, following the Globe critics, I’ll add my own Should Win and Was Robbed additions below]
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY
Should win: Jamie Foxx
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should win: Thomas Hayden Church
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Should win: Annette Bening
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Was robbed: Lili Tomlin, Huckabees
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES
ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR
Should win: Lemony Snicket’s
Was robbed: Being Julia, Huckabee’s
CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR
Should win: House of Flying Daggers
Was robbed: Collateral, Eternal Sunshine
COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR
Should win: Ray
Was robbed: Code 46
DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR
Should win: Million Dollar Baby
Was Robbed: Michael Mann, Collateral
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BORN INTO BROTHELS
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
AUTISM IS A WORLD
FILM EDITING
AVIATOR
Should win: Collateral
Was Robbed: Eternal Sunshine
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SEA INSIDE
MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET’S
MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND
MUSIC (SONG)
“Believe” - THE POLAR EXPRESS
BEST PICTURE
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should win: Million Dollar Baby
Was robbed: Collateral
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
RYAN
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
LITTLE TERRORIST
SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES
SOUND MIXING
THE AVIATOR
VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS
Should win: Before Sunset (though like Chuck Tryon, I’m not sure how it’s in the adapted category)
Was robbed: Being Julia
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
Should win: Eternal sunshine
Was robbed: Everyday People, Code 46
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