Credible Threats

Posted on Thursday 8 July 2004

News arrives from Tom Ridge that credible information “pointed to an attack in which terrorists would try to ‘disrupt our democratic process.’” Dimmy Karras watches the announcement and wonders: “what is the point of this press conference?”

Ridge probably would respond with some general remark about how people should be aware of heightened risk, be ready to report suspicious activity, etc. But is that really necessary? People have their guard up plenty without Ridge, Ashcroft, Cheney et al going on TV to make announcements all the time. Pressers like this, if they become too commonplace, risk being ignored.

Indeed. But I have another, maybe naive, question. What exactly is a credible threat? How does this one differ from others, such as the one last holiday season that came without any details whatsoever? How does it differ from generalized warnings they’ve offered before? Absent any specifics, how does this differ from simply looking at Madrid bombing and worrying that it could happen here? Even Bill Frist seems to be thinking along these lines.

Before his public briefing, Mr. Ridge and the F.B.I. director, Robert S. Mueller, briefed senators privately. Afterward, Senator Bill Frist, Republican of Tennessee, the majority leader, indicated that nothing startling had emerged in the closed session.

“The essence of the briefing is that during this period of elections, this campaign season, that there is increased risk of a terrorist attack in the United States of America,” Mr. Frist said. “The nature of that risk is very non-specific.”

Some are suspicious of the timing and motives of this press conference. First, I’ll worry about the possibility that they’re hiding behind falsely technical language to disguise their own lack of ability to assess risk and communicate appropriate action. You choose which is worse.

Of course, we all hope Ridge is wrong. The prospect of another major attack, especially in Boston, is frightening. But there are likely more sensible and media-savvy ways of communicating risk if you genuinely want the public to protect themselves and each other while avoiding panic.


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