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Ryan Lizza has a good observation about the difference between elite conservatives and everyday Republicans that seems to be behind some of the declining poll numbers for Bush. Taking on Bruce Bartlett, he notes,

This seems like a ridiculous analysis, a kind of wishful thinking that conservative elites indulge in when they are confronted with the fact that they are out of touch with average Republicans. Polls taken precisely during the worst stretch of news from Iraq show that some Bush supporters, especially in rural areas, are having second thoughts about the president. It must be because of his heresies on steel tariffs two years ago! I’m sure this is what bothers Bartlett about Bush, but I have trouble believing that this is what is causing angst in the grassroots.

He admits his evidence of the causes of grassroots dissatisfaction is anecdotal, but if last night’s NewsHour segment on tour-of-duty extension is any indication, we may have signs that another pillar of GOP support is getting upset: the armed forces.

Take the sentiment expressed by Former Army Captain Andrew Exum:

Well, I took a commission to be an officer of the United States Army so really even though I left the service seven days ago, I never really leave the army. I still have an obligation and if I’m called back, then I still have that obligation. However, with an enlisted soldier, I mean, you’re talking about guys that these guys signed contracts for a pre-determined amount of time to serve in the — to serve in the military, and they would like to be able to plan on when they are going to get out.

In other words, I had soldiers that were planning on going to college this summer. They were planning on starting new careers, and now because of the stop loss order, they are being told to hold on and go to Iraq for an undetermined amount of time. The bottom line is that’s just not a — it’s not a fair way to treat the guys that have already sacrificed so much for this global war on terror, and I believe what you see is that this is just another instance in which the civilian populace is being told that, hey, there are no additional costs to this war. The active duty can handle this war as it’s — as it’s currently structured and that’s just not the case.

Of course, Exum is speaking for himself, not the Army as a whole. But his sentiment that civilian leadership has let the soldier in battle down was echoed by another panelist, Retired Colonel Douglas MacGregor.

I think we’re going to see more of this because we did not think this through carefully and I’m talking about the generals who had to look for 18 months at the very high probability that we would intervene in Iraq. Nothing was done to posture and restructure the force. No one thought through the consequences of saying if we use these forces early, what are the forces that we’re going to identify that we can rotate into replace them? What can we do to ensure that people don’t have to stay in Iraq and Afghanistan for 12 months? What can we do to turn that tour into a six-month tour, which would have a profoundly positive impact?

I thought it was interesting today that the Marine Corps announced that after seven months they will in fact turn over the forces that they have in Iraq with new marine forces. They will not opt for the 12-month tour and I think the 12-month tour is devastating. Service in Iraq and Afghanistan for 12 months is far different from what people in this country appreciate. It’s like three or four years anywhere else.

Of course, the reason this was not thought through carefully was the same reason that the budget allocation for the war was purposefully understated the first go around (and still may be). The administration worried that if the true costs were visible up front, they would lose political support for the war. They didn’t trust the electorate with the real reasons for the war or the real scope of the mission. At best you could say they were gambling that a swift victory would prove them right and give momentum, at worst they were strong-arming any political opposition, no matter how reasoned.

It remains to be seen whether this line of dissatisfaction will translate to significant votes in the Kerry column. And it clearly is an problem of national importance whether or not the Democrats benefit from it. We are not giving our volunteer forces a fair deal. Exum may be right that the soldier is paying the price of political expediency because he or she “can’t complain to the press… can’t be an advocate.” Then again, he or she can vote.