Throughout the developments in the gay marriage debate here, I’ve tended to think that Romney’s anti-gay marriage shenanigans will ultimately hurt any reelection attempt. Probably not on a huge scale, as I sense that most voters don’t care one way or another about the issue, or at least aren’t prepared to make that the central basis for voting. Rather, the harm would come in the differential between the minority who does care about it: social conservatives were already inclined to vote for him, but we can imagine a subset of liberal conservatives who did vote for him last time but won’t next time around.
Now, today, a couple of pieces have confirmed for me a sense that Romney may be facing difficulty. First, Ben at Romney is a Fraud has been parsing the recent poll data on Gov. Romney’s approval ratings and has noticed that the 62 percent favorability drops off once you start asking specific questions on performance and direction. It’s that kind of discrepancy which spells danger for reelection hopes, as shallow support is more easily dissuadable.
Meanwhile Dan Kennedy has alerted me to a telling Cosmo Macero column in today’s Herald (subscription required), taking the convening of the Jobs for Massachusetts forum - sans Romney - as an occasion to reflect on the governor’s performance.
It is a forum in which Gov. Mitt Romney ought to be thriving: frank talk about creating jobs with people in a position to help. Instead, it is a forum that Romney has largely chosen to ignore. And in so doing, he has created the perfect metaphor for his miserable record on economic growth. Five fiscal quarters into Republican Romney’s jobless administration, the only people more frustrated than his political rivals are the business-community supporters who hailed his 2002 victory over Democrat Shannon O’Brien.
He goes on to quote one roundtable participant: “I worked for governors Weld and Cellucci, and I know that they felt it was a very important thing to go to… I think it’s important for politicians to be able to speak candidly without having to posture.”
Ouch. And this from a Republican, former John Regan. If Macero is right in his sense of the business community’s frustration, that’s stinging criticism (Romney, after all, was their candidate) and a sign that a crucial political pillar might be less supportive next time around.
Or will there be a next time around? Conventional wisdom is that Romney is seeking higher office and that everything in his political life now is geared toward achieving a Bush administration post come 43’s next term. He shouldn’t blow up his bridges before he’s crossed them.
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