Other things being Equal

Posted on Monday 28 July 2003

So far I find myself disagreeing more and more with Howard Dean’s policy stances - like his states rights fetish for gun control and gay marriage, or his trade protectionism - but in general I find myself drawn to him as a candidate. Johnathan Cohn of the New Republic sums up my feelings exactly:

… Which brings me to the final important reason why Dean deserves a chance to prove himself: the competition. If there were some dream Democratic candidate out there suffocating because Dean was sucking up all the political air, then I might favor “stopping” Dean, too. But, dear lord, have you seen these guys? While some of them have perfectly respectable records as public servants–and a few are peddling some intriguing policy ideas–they’re awful campaigners. Either they can’t connect with audiences, or they have nothing interesting to say, or they’re hopelessly (and transparently) led around by consultants, or some combination thereof. And as we learned in 2000, there’s nothing like a bad candidate to undermine an otherwise strong political position.

Pundits have learned that all other things being equal, a centrist candidate will beat an identifiably liberal or conservative candidate each time. However, they often forget that the other things aren’t always equal.


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